Western Balkans accession dynamics
L.A. reports from Podgorica and Skopje
🔸The Western Balkans summit in Tivat (Montenegro) was organised to demonstrate continued commitment to EU enlargement but also the intention to accelerate this historic process. As a warm-up to the summit, German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron issued a joint letter on enlargement to “inject a new dynamism” but also to outline a new framework. While new expressions started to fly around (like „privileged access” to the internal market, or „progressive observer status”), there have been very few concrete elements visible that would guarantee that progress happens in the coming years. The hot air around enlargement became even hotter.
🔸Montenegro as a host had an opportunity to demonstrate that this country is the front runner of the accession process. They are most advanced with discussing and closing the negotiating chapters, while they have been part of the eurozone as well as NATO for ages. The risk is that Montenegro’s acession could tick the box of enlargement delivery for a decade or longer. While Western EU members would believe that by this they restore the credibility of the enlargement process, those in the South-East and East could say that the West goes for a few low-hanging fruits and many thorny issues (e.g. the constitutional consolidation of Bosnia and Herzegovina) remain unattended.
🔸Not so long ago, Albania was mentioned every time when the top of the enlargement league table had to be defined. However, as previously North-Macedonia was decoupled from Albania, this time it became clear that Albania is not considered any more as a potential participant of the next enlargement round. In particular, the controversy about the Jared Kushner related seaside investment, surrounded by vocal demonstrations, is a matter for concern. It is not simply about the protection of environment, but also about governance standards, at a time when much more attention is paid to problems of foreign (non-EU) influence, the protection of European sovereignty, and the oligarchic deformations of economy and politics.
🔸Hungary’s recent elections and the entry of the government led by Péter Magyar bring new dynamics into the EU enlargement process, but not so much as the Russian aggression against Ukraine brought 4 years before. The change of government in Hungary has no direct effect on the front runner status of Montenegro, however, pushing back and potentially eliminating the cross-national oligarchic networks partly organised and financed by the former PM Orbán can bring change also into Western Balkans politics. On the other hand, Magyar’s diplomacy may bring an improvement in HU-UA relations, depending on the state of ethnic minority rights in Ukraine.
🔸What concerns Ukraine, German Chancellor Merz wanted to bring good news but found out how hard it is in this area. First of all, associate membership does not exist yet. If he means it, a Treaty change is necessary. Second, since Ukraine was provided with the vision of full (and somewhat accelerated) membership, only one leading politician, Arsen Yatsenyuk, came forward with a positive opinion on the Merz proposal. In the background, the deepening of bilateral conflict with Poland regarding WWII remembrance does not help either. In terms of the gravity of the contentious issue, this is arguably much more serious than the recent (and still ongoing) spat between Bulgaria and North-Macedonia.
🔸While the speed of EU enlargement in South-East Europe has been underwhelming (especially in view of the 2003 Thessaloniki Declaration), the nature of EU enlargement has changed as well in the meantime. Most EU officials prioritise geopolitical objectives: enlargement is a way to keep Russia and China out of the region, and the Western Balkans countries are already security providers. Secondly, the language of consolidating democracies is also around. What is almost absent is: economic and social convergence, which is most important for the peoples living in this area. The need for a progressive approach was in the focus of the Skopje initiative spearheaded by the Social Democratic Union of North-Macedonia (SDSM).
🔸Simultaneously with the summit in Tivat, a FEPS event under the title „Friends of the Western Balkans” took place in Montenegro, in cooperation with the Willy Brandt Programme of the S&D Group in the European Parliament. A key message of participants (transmitted through a conference declaration) was that developing intra-regional cooperation is as important as competition between EU candidate countries in the accession Marathon. Over 30 regional initiatives between diverse groups of Western Balkan countries prove that there is a genuine need for such cooperations. The lack of an adequate social dimension of the enlargement process has also been pointed out, given that issues like brain drain represent a daunting concern in the region.